Teknik Analiz nedir?

Teknik Analiz, geçmişteki fiyat hareketlerinin incelenmesine dayalı olarak gelecekteki finansal fiyat hareketlerinin tahmin edilmesidir. Hava tahmini gibi, teknik analiz de gelecekle ilgili kesin tahminlerle sonuçlanmaz. Bunun yerine, teknik analiz, yatırımcıların zaman içinde fiyatlara "muhtemel" ne olacağını tahmin etmelerine yardımcı olabilir.
Teknik analiz hisse senetleri, endeksler, emtialar, vadeli işlemler veya fiyatın arz ve talep güçlerinden etkilendiği herhangi bir alınıp satılabilir enstrümana uygulanabilir. Fiyat verileri (veya John Murphy'nin dediği gibi "piyasa eylemi"), belirli bir zaman diliminde belirli bir menkul kıymet için açık, yüksek, düşük, kapanış, hacim veya açık faizin herhangi bir kombinasyonunu ifade eder. Zaman aralığı gün içi (1 dakika, 5 dakika, 10 dakika, 15 dakika, 30 dakika veya saatlik), günlük, haftalık veya aylık fiyat verilerine dayalı olabilir ve birkaç saat veya birkaç yıl sürebilir.
Teknik analiz, zaman içindeki fiyatı gösteren çok çeşitli grafikler kullanır.
Teknik Analizin Temel Varsayımları
Teknik analiz, fiyatın yalnızca arz ve talep güçlerinden etkilendiği menkul kıymetler için geçerlidir. Diğer güçler menkul kıymetin fiyatını etkileyebildiği zaman teknik analiz iyi sonuç vermez. Başarılı olmak için, teknik analiz, analiz edilen menkul kıymetler hakkında üç temel varsayımda bulunur:
High Liquidity - Liquidity is essentially volume. Heavily traded stocks allow investors to trade quickly and easily without significantly changing the stock price. Thinly traded stocks are more difficult to trade because there are not many buyers or sellers at any given time, so buyers and sellers may have to significantly change the price they want to make a trade. Additionally, low-liquidity stocks are generally very low priced (sometimes less than a penny per share), which means their prices can be more easily manipulated by individual investors. These external forces acting on finely traded stocks make them unsuitable for technical analysis.
gold trading signals No Artificial Price Changes - Splits, dividends and distributions are the most common "culprits" of artificial price changes. Although there is no difference in the value of the investment, artificial price changes can significantly affect the price chart and make technical analysis difficult to apply. Such price impact from external sources can be easily addressed by adjusting historical data before the price change.
No Extraordinary News - Technical analysis cannot predict extreme events, including business events such as the unexpected death of a company's CEO, and political events such as terrorist acts. When "extreme news" forces affect the price, technicians must patiently wait until the picture improves and begins to reflect the "new normal" resulting from such news.
Before applying technical analysis, it is important to determine whether a security meets these three requirements. This does not mean that the analysis of any stock whose price is affected by one of these external forces is useless, but it will affect the accuracy of the analysis.
The Basis of Technical Analysis
At the turn of the century, Dow Theory laid the foundations for what would later evolve into modern technical analysis. The Dow Theory was not presented as a complete unification, but rather was compiled from Charles Dow's writings over several years. Of the many theorems put forward by gold signals Dow, three stand out:
Price reduction on everything
Price movements are not completely random
"What" is more important than "Why"
Price Discounts Everything
This theorem is similar to strong and semi-strong forms of market efficiency. Technical analysts believe that the current price accurately reflects all the information. Since all information is already reflected in the price, it represents fair value and should serve as the basis for analysis. Ultimately, the market price reflects the aggregate knowledge of all participants, including traders, investors, portfolio managers, buyer-side analysts, sell-side analysts, market strategists, technical analysts, fundamental analysts, and others. It would be foolish not to participate in the price set by such an impressive array of people with flawless credentials. Technical analysis uses the information gathered by the price to interpret what the market is saying in order to form an opinion on the future.
Technical analysts think the market is 80% psychological and 20% logical. Fundamental analysts think the market is 20% psychological and 80% logical. It may be open to psychological or logical discussion, but the current price of a security cannot be questioned. After all, it is visible to everyone, and nobody doubts its legitimacy. The price set by the market reflects the aggregate information of all participants and we